I never thought I'd see the day that a major US investment bank admitted what we've known here at HP for years - that the United States housing market will suffer a historic crash and the drop from peak to trough will be sickening. Man has the world gone HousingPANIC?IF YOU ARE CONSIDERING BUYING A HOME TODAY - DON'T. IF YOU'RE TRYING TO SELL YOUR HOME. CUT THE PRICE. CUT IT FAST AND CUT IT HARD. YOU'LL BE LUCKY TO GET OUT. IF YOU'RE LISTENING TO A REALTOR ON COMMISSION. WELL. THEN YOU'RE SIMPLY A FOOL. A 15% nationwide decline will be horrific folks. A 30% decline will stun even me. I can't even picture how devastating that will be for the homedebtors who listened to realtors on commission and for the American and world economies. Banks will fail. Millions will lose their jobs. Cities will go bankrupt. And the US dollar will collapse. But I think we all need to get our heads around that number folks. A 30% nationwide decline would mean places like Phoenix. Tampa. San Diego. Vegas. Naples. Boston. DC. Detroit. Sacramento and more will see 50%+ declines and will not just see recessions they'll see true 1920's type depressions. Wow. This is gonna be ugly. Get ready. We predicted it but now we have to deal with it. NEW YORK (Reuters) - The housing slump has increased the chance of a U. S recession and will further weaken home prices. Goldman Sachs Group said on Tuesday cutting its stock recommendations on a slew of companies vulnerable to sluggish growth.
In a grim assessment of the U. S economy's health the investment bank said the Federal Reserve will have to cut its lending rate to banks by 1-1/2 percentage points to 3 percent in the next six to nine months to avert a recession. Home prices will likely decline by 15 percent from their peak. But if the United States enters a recession -- which Goldman expects the economy to narrowly escape -- home prices could fall as much as 30 percent nationwide it said.
This act will be used by our new american nazi gvt to lock up free speech dissenters kinda like us talking against the war or the NARAlert - S 1959Eviscerates Free Speech THIS IS AN URGENT ACTION ALERT S 1959 "Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007" must be stopped at all costs. Pick up your phone today and contact your US Senator's office to instruct them to vote "NO" on S.1959. Click here for your Senators contact info: http://www senate gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm cfm Full PDF text if the bill: http://tinyurl com/3a3y2z If this bill is passed and becomes law your words and actions could be considered terrorism. S 1959 EVISCERATES FREE SPEECH and empowers the government to declare ANYTHING they deem an "extremist belief system" to instantly make you a 'terrorist' and resulting in stripping of US citizenship torture and/or execution with no habeas corpus rights no ability to challenge even in the US Supreme Court. Contact your Senator and let them know they will be looking for another job if they vote yes on this bill which is now introduced into the Senate as S.1959 THIS BILL **MUST NOT** BECOME LAW. PERIOD http://www govtrack us/congress/bill xpd?bill=h110-1955 http://www govtrack us/congress/bill xpd?bill=s110-1959 If this becomes law your words could be considered "promoting an extremist belief system" and all they have to say is that you are using PLANNED OR THREATENED *FORCE* (DOES NOT HAVE TO BE VIOLENCE) -- FORCE by exposing CORRUPTION. CRIMINALITY against "THE CIVILIAN POPULATION OF THE UNITED STATES. *****OR ANY SEGMENT THEREOF" READ THE BILL MANY TIMES AND VERY CAREFULLY--YOU ARE THE TERRORIST (WHICH MEANS THEY CAN STRIP YOUR CITIZENSHIP. AND HAVE YOU TORTURED AND EXECUTED). Senate is back in session today do not hesitate call fax email your Senator ASAP. Click here for your Senators contact info: http://www senate gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm cfm Email to a friend To: Bcc: Your email address: Message: Print version del icio us Digg this
Old News - Sacramento prices are already down 25% from the peak (8/05) and we've got more to go. We've got an interesting year ahead. The good news is that real estate agents are starting to drop out (at last). We've still got a lot of dead wood to get out of the industry in the next year but we've just started now. That said I've had a good year met my goals and my clients goals and helped a couple of people save their finances. I can feel good about what I do and take some time off!
I don't see how we avoid a recession. I really don't. You can drop the interest rates trying to lower capital costs for businesses. But each time you drop rates you undercut the USD and you make everything more expensive for businesses and consumers. A vicious cycle is the most realistic outcome. Even if you lower rates noone is going to want to touch a US Mortgage Backed Security when the dollar is tanking so they are going to have to offer higher rates on them to investors. The only way you can offer higher rates on the MBS is if you charge a higher rate to mortgage borrowers. And the same damn thing happens to businesses trying to issue bonds or commercial paper. We're not just fahqued - we're super-fahqued. Yeah. I think Goldman is still being optimistic at 15%.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The housing slump has increased the chance of a U. S recession.... Yes and driving your car into a brick wall at 40 mph increase the chance your airbags will deploy!Face it a recession is a-comin'. But what's so bad about that? The economy could shrink 2% over the next year and we'd only be back to where we were a year ago but they'd call that a recession. Nooo we always gotta be growin' right? See where that got us.
OK - And I know this is a little bit of "I'm ok you're not" - I bought in June '07 literally a few weeks before the credit market seized up. So. I got a jumbo loan at 6.37%. I also got a second mortgage at 8.7% for 100,000. I'm paying both at 20% more than the payments require. I don't think I'm screwed because I don't plan on leaving or refinancing anytime soon but with everything happening now - what happens if there is a catastrophe in my life. Maybe I am screwed after all.
Just a 20% drop will take virtually 1/2 of people from having equity to being under water. Thats when people really start to walk. Forclosures have been accelerating in Colorado Springs the last few months. We will break the old record of almost 3900 set in 1989 but will break it by double that next year at current rate of decent. This will probably almost equal total sales at the current rate of decent as well. Houses aren't so much over priced here as they are just to damn big. Way to many 3000 and up sqft houses here. Even at around 100 a sqft that is some serious green. I went to look at one that is for sale and rent today. Nice house 5bd/3b/3cg granite CT ,wood floors3900sqft rent 1700 buy 469000 down from 529000. Rent value says 250+-10k. Expensive yes but you get a lot of house for the money as opposed to OC or San Diego. However why buy when you can rent for 2/3 the price. Sequoia
I noticed HPer's were posting prices in their areas. Well I just had to "one up you" on the ridiculous housing prices in my area.... These are all listed on MLS. But you can go to www zillow com and type in 90046 zip code. I only chose 2+1 so you can get the idea. Cheers! :)1241 N VISTA ST West Hollywood. 90046 - $1,550,000 Beds: 2 | Baths: 1 | Sq. Ft.: 1,315| Lot Size: 5,480 Sq. Ft. Year Built: 1917 | Listing Date: 05/22/071021 N OGDEN DR West Hollywood. 90046 - $1,395,000 Beds: 2 | Baths: 1 | Sq. Ft.: 1,226| Lot Size: 6,500 Sq. Ft. Year Built: 1920 | Listing Date: 07/09/07936 N VISTA ST West Hollywood. 90046 - $1,050,000 Beds: 2 | Baths: 1 | Sq. Ft.: 1,162| Lot Size: 6,110 Sq. Ft. Year Built: 1922 | Listing Date: 10/11/07
"Sacramento prices are already down 25% from peak (8/05)"You mean home prices (which never go down) ARE DOWN 25% from "peak" (in a bubble that never existed?) Look. I know you think you're somehow building credibility here but for that to occur you'd need to be able to say that every seller you represented in the last 3+ years you advocated they RENT after closing their sale!But that didn't happen did it? You would have been cutting your income in half. So instead of doing the right thing.. and telling these people to keep themselves (and their bubble bucks) on the sidelines you put them in over their head and at the peak of the market didn't you!?Please don't waste my time. DinOR
I'm astounded frankly. Google median income and then decide how far home prices have to fall to get America on a sane track again. November 28. 2007 7:13 AM============Median income includes those on welfare college kids pensioners,etc. Those people aren't buying homes. What you need to do is find the median income of home owners. It is a lot higher around $75K household income compared to $45K when including everyone. So using the 3X rule median homes should be at around $225K which is exactly where it is now. Here is an example of how much of a difference median income is between renters and homeowners in New Hampshire. In some counties renters make less than 1/2 of what owners make http://www freestateproject org/community/nh_reports/swyers/housingIn Utah:For all dwellings the median income in Utah was $47,934. For Utah homeowners the median income was $57,529,http://www imakenews com/cppa/e_article000865132 cfm?x=b11,0,wAnd this is the case everywhere.
Ok I believe in "HOUSING BUBLE",sold my FL properties in 2006(invest profit in GOLD) sold my NJ primary house(invest profit in GOLD as well) and rent apartment. BUT in NY metro area it doesn't looks like prices going down. Actually it's vice versa going UP. So Florida. Nevada. California. YES it's UGLY but guys what about Manhattan or Brooklyn ??? Why nothing really going on there ??? Hundreds of new condos and prices UNBELIVABLE HIGH ??? Thanks for comments.
To the previous posters about Goldman Sachs - agreed! they are definitely trying to enhance their position right now.. so not sure how valuable their pov is right now. As far as interest rates going to 3% - that would be terrible for everyone - yes you on this blog. Very few will escape consequences. I said this before if they have to bail out some banks/brokerages particularly where I have my money - great! A fahqued financial system is not good for any of us. The trick is now identifying which bank/brokerages are going to take the fall... I do not know at this point.
Who is this guy Andrew Hac? And why is he so darn disrespectful towards Americans. He always refers to us as "Americanos" and keeps saying how bad we Americans will have in the coming recession. Doesn't he understand that if America catches a sneeze then the rest of the world will catch the flu? The world financial system can not survive with America going into a recession/depression. We are the ANCHOR. If we go down. The rest of the world will go down too.
We've been through this before and nothing is new. The end of the world.. not. The sky is falling.. not. Problems yes but life always goes on. A lot of the pictures and graphs Keith has used over and over and over again. The one poster asked where have all the readers gone... many may still drop in but it all you hear is the same old news over and over and over again.. like the little boy who cried wolf.. people stop listening. Most people here rarely talk with facts or rational just hype and editorialize. No one talks about inflation adjusted prices true cost to build inflation etc. Most post contradict.. even the gold buggers... adjusted for inflation the high of the 80s would be $2,000... so much for inflation protection. The death of the dollar? Please currencies always cycle.. they said the Euro was dead after it was launched and lost 30 or so percent of its value when it dropped below.88 and now it is where? Almost 1.5? And the Canadian currency? I was valued more than ours in the early 70s and then went as low as 40% less and did Canada die?The dollar will rise in value when our deficit drops and the drop in the value will help that through making thinks here a bargain.. so now Canadians are coming south to buy homes clothes books cars... it is all a cycle. Remember the biblical saying. "There is nothing new under the sun."Home prices collapse? Yes bargains where you don't want to live. Bargains if you have good credit or cash.. but over all few bargains. If Phoenix and Vegas are epicenters... homes till cost more than I'd pay or more than they are in many places in the USA.. and yes. I wouldn't buy in these markets without another 25% drop.. but will it happen? Maybe maybe not but I don't care. My income keeps going up.. as does the price of everything else. Inflation? That will eat away at the value of homes etc. If the world didn't hold so many dollars then we'd be screwed... but now they are screwed. Oh and Europe.. wait till their bubble breaks....
"The economy could shrink 2% over the next year and we'd only be back to where we were a year ago but they'd call that a recession. Nooo we always gotta be growin' right? See where that got us."Good point. I've always wondered why it is that our economy has to keep growing just to maintain our standard of living? Shouldn't a 0% increase in GDP mean that we're perfectly stable in that we aren't growing (which is impossible to do indefinitely) but not shrinking either? Am I right or wrong?It's the same thing with cities or regions that complain about a zero population growth and wish that their population was growing instead. Why should the population have to increase just to maintain the existing population's standard of living? Growth is not sustainable (monetary or population-wise) forever because the system of checks and balances must maintain the law of averages. When growth occurs there must be a decline later on or somewhere else. Why don't some people understand this?
These are all listed on MLS. But you can go to www zillow com and type in 90046 zip code. I only chose 2+1 so you can get the idea. Cheers! :)November 28. 2007 9:05 AMI'm sorry I meant to refer you to www ziprealty com - They offer a free property search service with no obligation. I refer family and friends to this site so they can keep track of the market in their area. You can get new listings on MLS emailed to you daily and boy are their alot of NEW listings everyday over here in Cali.
" foxwoodlief said... We've been through this before and nothing is new. The end of the world.. not. The sky is falling.. not. Problems yes but life always goes on. A lot of the pictures and graphs Keith has used over and over and over again. The one poster asked where have all the readers gone... many may still drop in but it all you hear is the same old news over and over and over again.. like the little boy who cried wolf.. people stop listening."LOL"Very Prosperous Year Is ForecastGuenther Analyzes the Report of Mellon Covering 1929That 1930 may be a very prosperous year industrially and otherwise without the peak conditions that made 1929 and exceptional year for business prosperity is an observation made by Louis Guenther publisher of the Financial World in a statement based upon Secretary Mellon's fiscal report..."To grow too fast is often unhealthy because of the suddenness with which a readjustment must be met. By far and large the country would be better off were further progress made along more normal lines... Fortunately we have returned to a more normal mind in appraising prospects. We are not looking for the Midas touch on everything to which we turn. That makes us more satisfied with normal incomes and normal profit returns."-The World. December 15. 1929"Foxwood denial can be a cruel mistress some might even call her a bitch.
"A lot of the pictures and graphs Keith has used over and over and over again. The one poster asked where have all the readers gone... many may still drop in but it all you hear is the same old news over and over and over again.. like the little boy who cried wolf.. people stop listening."---------------------------Actually I think readers are up - I'm a long time HP fan and I always read but don't always post because there are usually so many posts already by the time I check. I think it's just getting interesting. 50% price cut would really just bring us back to 2001 prices which were still ridiculously high
Sequoia said.."Houses aren't so much over priced here as they are just to damn big. Way to many 3000 and up sqft houses here."Very true! My dad built homes back in the early eighties through the early part of the nineties and was charging $70-90 sq ft. Many of us don't need (or want in my case) that much house. 2200-2400 sf is ok. I'm tired of these McMansions. Give me a home that I can make a mortgage payment WITH plenty of savings left over after expenses so in the golden years I'll never utter the words to my wife while in a huge house "I'm sorry honey" while I strap on my shoes to go to work at 70. These homes at these prices will have me working till 60 & no savings to really speak of. No thanks
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